Break-even calculator for a new affiliate site

What these numbers mean

Most people who start an affiliate site count the domain, the hosting and maybe some written content, arrive at a few hundred euros, and conclude the downside is small. The downside is not the few hundred euros. It is ten hours a week for a year, which at any honest valuation is the single largest line in the table above — and it is the line that never appears in the “start an affiliate site for EUR 50” version of this arithmetic.

The default example is deliberately uncomfortable. EUR 600 up front, EUR 60 a month, ten hours a week valued at EUR 25, first revenue in month six growing 15% a month: the site does not break even inside two years, and the deepest point is over EUR 16,000. That is not an argument against starting. It is an argument for knowing which number you are actually betting, and for choosing inputs you can defend.

A worked example

Change one input in that example: value your hours at zero because you are doing this in evenings you would otherwise spend badly. The monthly cost falls from about EUR 1,143 to EUR 60, and the same revenue curve pays the project back inside the window. Same site, same effort, entirely different verdict — which tells you the verdict was mostly about how you price your time, not about the site.

Now go the other way and keep the hourly value but halve the hours. The costs fall, but so should the revenue ramp: five hours a week produces content more slowly, so first revenue moves later and growth is flatter. Move both together. A model where you cut the cost and leave the revenue curve untouched is not a model, it is a wish.

The two mistakes people make here

Compounding forever. Fifteen percent a month for twenty-four months is a twenty-eight-fold increase. Real sites plateau: they run out of keywords in their niche, or the operators they carry stop accepting new markets. Use the ceiling field. A cap you have to justify is more honest than a curve you never questioned.

Assuming revenue starts when the site does. A new domain in a competitive niche typically ranks for nothing for months. Setting the first revenue month to one produces a chart that never resembles what happens — and the gap between that chart and reality is where most people quit. Our own experience is that the first year is mostly spent building the thing that earns in the second.

What we would do this week

• Track your actual hours for one week before entering a figure. Almost everyone underestimates, usually by half.
• Set the first revenue month to the honest number, not the hopeful one, then check the deepest point on the cumulative column. That is what you are risking.
• If the answer is “not within 24 months”, decide deliberately: narrow the niche so the ramp starts earlier, cut the hours, or accept the timeline and stop re-checking the dashboard weekly.