How Much Do Casino Affiliates Actually Make?

Ask the internet how much a casino affiliate earns and you get two answers: a screenshot of a five-figure dashboard, or a shrug. Neither helps you decide whether to spend a year building a site. So here is a third answer — a model with six multipliers in it. Put your own numbers into the multipliers and it tells you what your traffic is worth.

Why the numbers you have seen cannot be verified

Affiliate earnings are self-reported. There is no filing requirement, no audited statement, no register of affiliate revenue anywhere. A dashboard screenshot shows a number inside a panel; it does not show the period, how many sites produced it, what the traffic cost, whether the balance survived a deduction, or whether it was ever paid out at all. Most programs also put deal terms under NDA, so the people holding the real numbers are contractually the least able to publish them.

That cuts both ways. Publishers who could publish their funnel figures generally do not either: one portfolio's numbers describe that portfolio's mistakes, not your prospects. What we can give you is the structure of the calculation and the parts of it that are publicly sourced.

One thing that is checkable is the size of the pot commission comes out of. The Gambling Commission puts the value of the gambling market in Great Britain at GBP 16.8 billion for April 2024 to March 2025 — one regulated market, one year. The money exists. The question is what share of it a single publisher's traffic can reach.

The model: six multipliers between a visit and a euro

Start with visits to your page in a month. Six numbers stand between that visit and money in your account:

1. Outbound click rate — the share of visitors who click through to an operator.
2. Registration rate — the share of those clicks that open an account inside the cookie window.
3. Deposit rate — the share of registrations that become an FTD.
4. Monthly NGR per depositor — what that player generates in net gaming revenue each month.
5. Active months — how long they keep playing before they churn.
6. Commission rate — your percentage of that NGR.

Multiply the visits by all six and you get the lifetime commission earned from one month of traffic:

visits × click rate × registration rate × deposit rate × monthly NGR × active months × commission rate

The same product is also your steady-state monthly income once the business is mature, because cohorts stack: while this month's depositors are in their first month, last month's are in their second, and so on. That is why affiliate income looks like nothing for half a year and then appears to arrive all at once. Nothing changed except that the stack filled up.

Realistic values for each multiplier, with ranges

The ranges below are illustrative planning ranges, not measurements — use them only until you have your own. Every one of them becomes knowable from your click log and one program dashboard within a few weeks of your first real traffic.

Only the last row is a published number rather than an assumption. Here are headline revenue-share figures published by the programs listed on this site, each quoted from that program's own pages and checked on 6 September 2026 — confirm them again before signing, because tiers, market exclusions and admin fees change what a headline means:

Note the spread inside a single row. A 25–45% range means the number offered on day one is the bottom of it, and the top is a volume tier most publishers never reach. Plan on the bottom.

Three worked scenarios: a small site, a mid site, a portfolio

All three are illustrative. They use middle-of-the-range multipliers so you can see what changes, and the arithmetic is deliberately simple enough to redo on paper.

Small site — say 10,000 visits a month. At a 6% click rate that is 600 outbound clicks. At 4% registration, 24 accounts. At a 45% deposit rate, about 11 first-time depositors a month. If each generates EUR 60 NGR a month for 5 months, that is EUR 300 lifetime NGR per player; at a 30% revenue share, EUR 90 per depositor. Eleven depositors times EUR 90 is about EUR 990 a month at steady state, reached roughly five months after the traffic is stable. That works out at an EPC of EUR 1.65 per outbound click.

Mid site — say 60,000 visits a month. Same rates: 3,600 clicks, 144 registrations, about 65 depositors a month at EUR 90 each — about EUR 5,850 a month at steady state. Six times the traffic, six times the money. The funnel does not improve with scale on its own.

A portfolio — say 250,000 visits a month spread over several sites. Spread across markets the averages get worse, not better: a 5% click rate, 3.5% registration, a 40% deposit rate, EUR 55 monthly NGR over 5 months and a blended 32% share. That is 12,500 clicks, 437 registrations, about 175 depositors a month at roughly EUR 88 lifetime commission each — about EUR 15,400 a month at steady state. Note what it took: a quarter of a million monthly visits in one of the most competitive verticals in search.

Why the median affiliate earns nothing at all

Run the same model at the traffic a new site actually has. Say 500 visits a month: 30 outbound clicks, roughly one registration, one depositor every second month. At EUR 90 lifetime commission each that is about EUR 45 a month — below the minimum payout at most programs. Minimum payouts of EUR 100, GBP 100 and USD 250 are all normal at established programs. Earnings under the threshold roll forward; they do not vanish, but they do not arrive either.

Then add the clause most beginners never read. Under negative carryover, a month in which your players win more than they lose starts the next month in the red instead of at zero. With a handful of depositors, one lucky player can absorb a quarter. Our guide to revenue share, CPA and hybrid deals works through how the same traffic pays out very differently depending on which model you signed.

So the honest median is zero, and it is zero because of the first multiplier — traffic — not the last one.

What changes the answer most, and it is not the commission rate

Take the small-site scenario and improve one thing at a time:

• Commission 30% to 40%: EUR 990 becomes EUR 1,320 a month. Plus 33%, and it usually requires a volume tier you do not have yet.
• Deposit rate 45% to 60%: EUR 990 becomes EUR 1,320. Plus 33%, achievable by sending people to the offer that suits them rather than the one that pays best.
• Active months 5 to 7: EUR 990 becomes EUR 1,386. Plus 40%, and it is decided by the operator's product, not by your page — which is why operator quality is a commercial decision rather than a nicety.
• Traffic 10,000 to 20,000 visits: EUR 990 becomes EUR 1,980. Plus 100%.

And one more, which is why we wrote our post-mortem on a dead affiliate funnel: if the visitors sit in a country the operator cannot accept, every multiplier after the first is zero no matter how good the page is. It usually shows up as a geography mismatch between where the clicks come from and where the brands are licensed — the traffic chart looks healthy while the revenue line stays flat. Check the geography of your clicks before you optimise anything else.

How to run this model on your own traffic

You need three inputs: monthly visits, your outbound click count, and the signup and FTD columns from one program dashboard. Everything else follows from those.

1. Put your visits and click rate into the traffic-to-revenue estimator and read the funnel end to end.
2. Take the deal you are actually offered — not the headline — into the commission calculator, with the admin fee and the carryover clause switched on.
3. Compare the result against the programs in our affiliate program directory before you commit a market's worth of content to a single operator.

The output is not a forecast, and nobody can promise you one. It is a statement about what your current traffic is worth, which is the only number that makes the next decision for you.

One last frame: affiliate marketing in this vertical is advertising for licensed gambling operators. Everything above assumes you are promoting 18+ products to adults, in markets where the operator holds a licence, with responsible-gambling messaging on the page. That is not a formality — it is the condition of being paid at all.